Here are some ideas to combine prediction market with a Dao to make the delegation (aka “expert” selection) more meaningful.
Following @jlwaugh : “Anyone may submit a reasonable “Payout” proposal in order to see what people think.” I came up with the following thoughts:
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets (also called: information markets) are vehicles for aggregating financially backed sentiment about the expected outcome of a future event [1]. Similar to polls there are two types: categorical (e.g. red, green, blue, yellow) and binary (yes, no) [2].
The voting function of any DAO is typically used to make an informed and well-balanced decision by a group of people. This decicion making usually includes a deliberation step through discussion on proposals [3].
How exactly users would have to describe their proposals so they can be resolved by a market is still an open task. Some examples for valid (“don’t resolve as invalid.”) proposals can possibly be adapted from [2].
Deliberation
The term “experts” is sometimes used for a group of people who are most powerful or just the loudest.
pol.is [4] is used for used agenda construction (what to vote on) and (quoted from [5]): “RxC Voice aims to incorporate other components as well: delegation of responsibility, deliberation, and ballot construction.” and in the “Delegation Stage will … distribute voice credits”.
RxC solves the delegation by equally (or by any fair metric) distributing voice credits by humans. What I am proposing here is a Staking step before Deliberation and Voting to select the “experts” for a given task:
Prediction markets could be potentially a way to put “voice credits” (knowledge / information / gut feeling) at stake to benefit the community in the expert selection step.
Links
[1] https://xdai.omen.eth.link/faq.pdf
[2] https://xdai.omen.eth.link/rules.pdf
[3] [Proposal] GR10 Matching Pool: Use Gitcoin to build GitcoinDAO - 📜 Proposal Discussion - Gitcoin Governance
[4] https://pol.is/
[5] Introducing RxC Voice - RadicalxChange
To hopefully support this thoughts more please let me quote Jero from the RxC community: